Alcohol and Alcoholism, 2021, 1–7 doi: 10.1093/alcalc/agab019 Article Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/alcalc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/alcalc/agab… by Kent State University user on 02 April 2021 Article Increases in Risky Drinking During the COVID-19 Pandemic Assessed via Longitudinal Cohort Design: Associations With Racial Tensions, Financial Distress, Psychological Distress and Virus-Related Fears William V. Lechner1 ,*, Natasha K. Sidhu1 , Jackson T. Jin1 , Ahmad A. Kittaneh1 , Kimberly R. Laurene2 , and Deric R. Kenne2 1 Department of Psychological Sciences, Kent State University, Kent, OH 44240, USA , and 2 Center for Public Policy & Health Division of Mental Health & Substance Use, Kent State University, Kent, OH 44240, USA *Corresponding author: Department of Psychological Sciences, Kent State University, 600 Hilltop Drive, Kent, OH 44240, USA. Tel.: 330-672-2027; E-mail: wlechner@kent.edu Received 19 December 2020; Revised 9 February 2021; Editorial Decision 2 March 2021; Accepted 2 March 2021 Abstract Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has created disruptions to daily life resulting in wide-spread unemployment and psychological distress. Recent studies have reported high rates of alcohol use during this time; however, longitudinal data remain scarce and factors associated with increases in high-risk drinking observed over time are unknown. Aims: The current study examined changes in high-risk drinking patterns across four 7-day observation periods, prior to and following a university wide campus closure. Additionally, factors associated with changes in alcohol use patterns were examined including financial distress, psychological distress, impact of racial tensions and virus-related fears. Method: Students (N = 1001) in the Midwestern USA completed repeated assessments between March and June 2020. Each survey included a timeline follow-back measure of alcohol use. Pandemic-related distress spanning several factors was assessed at the final follow-up. Results: Risky drinking patterns increased significantly over time. Overall, psychological distress and impact of racial tensions were associated with higher rates of risky drinking, whereas COVID19-related fears were associated with lower rates. However, only financial-related distress was associated with an increase in risky drinking patterns over time. Conclusions: Increased risky drinking patterns observed in the current study may signal problems that are likely to persist even after the direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on daily life ends. Individuals experiencing financial distress may represent a particularly high-risk group. Interventions targeting the cross-section of job loss, financial stress and problematic alcohol use will be important to identify. INTRODUCTION The World Health Organization classified COVID-19 as a global pandemic on 11 March 2020 (Organization WH, 2020). Public health efforts to reduce the spread of the virus included closing schools and businesses and enacting social distancing policies as well as stay-at-home orders. The sudden onset of changes to daily © The Author(s) 2021. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. 1 2 the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) to recommend against drinking beyond these limits (defined in measurements). Documenting changes in these high-risk drinking patterns may provide valuable information on the resources needed to address problems caused by the pandemic that may persist even after its initial effects on daily life end. Lastly, this study examined the association between changes in risky drinking and several factors attributed specifically to the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the impact of racial tensions during this time. Primary aims included (a) examining changes in risky drinking patterns across four 7-day reporting periods between 3 March 2020 and 2 June 2020 and (b) examining if changes in risky drinking were related to four factors reported at the third follow-up period including (i) COVID-19-related financial loss, (ii) psychological distress caused by COVID-19, (iii) COVID-19related fears and (iv) racial tensions amid the pandemic. In addition to COVID-19-related factors, we assessed the association between changes in drinking patterns and the impact of racial tension due to increasing concerns regarding racial issues in the USA. At the time of this study, many societal events including several high-profile cases of police violence against Black Americans (Nicole Dungca et al., 2020) led to widespread protests against racial inequity and systemic racism. We hypothesized (a) significant increases in risky drinking across the assessment periods and (b) positive associations between increased risky drinking and (i) COVID-19-related financial loss and (ii) psychological distress caused by COVID-19. Due to the lack of reporting in the literature on alcohol use during the pandemic in relation to the last two factors explored, (iii) virus-related fears and (iv) racial tensions, we did not form a priori hypotheses on the direction of these associations. Lastly, we included two exploratory models examining the relationship between financial loss and changes in risky drinking patterns, and psychological distress and changes in risky drinking patterns as a function of gender, based on previous observations that distress-related alcohol consumption may be more prominent in women (Rodriguez et al., 2020). METHODS Participants and procedure Participants were 1001 students at a large public university in Northeast Ohio who completed three surveys between March and June 2020. Participants were recruited through email to participate in the study that consisted of self-report measures and retrospective timeline follow-back (TLFB) assessment of alcohol use. Participants completed the wave 1 assessment between 26 March and 6 April; wave 2 assessment was completed between 29 April and 10 May and wave 3 assessment was completed between 3 June and 14 June. Wave 1 included a retrospective timeline follow back assessment of alcohol use in the week prior to and the week immediately following university campus closure due the COVID-19 pandemic. Campus closure occurred on 10 March 2020 and included a student ban on entrance to all academic buildings and transition to remote teaching. Waves 2 and 3 assessed alcohol use via retrospective timeline follow back in the week prior to completion at each timepoint, respectively. The initial recruitment email was sent on 26 March 2020 to all students who were currently enrolled in spring semester (N = 33,280). A total of 4276 students (response rate = 12.8%) responded to the wave 1 survey, and 3653 completed all outcome items assessed in the current study. Wave 2 and 3 surveys were only sent to those who responded to the wave 1 survey; of those, 1766 students (41.3%) completed the wave 2 survey and 1390 students (32.5%) completed the third survey. Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/alcalc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/alcalc/agab… by Kent State University user on 02 April 2021 life, fears about the implications of the virus on personal health, employment and general uncertainty about the future led to observed increases in psychological distress (Aylie et al., 2020; Filgueiras and Stults-Kolehmainen, 2020; Smith et al., 2020). These necessary public health measures also included negative consequences such as limiting access to in-person social contact, mental health facilities and physical health facilities as well as impeding individual livelihoods; all of which are essential healthy coping mechanisms during times of increased distress (Helliwell and Putnam, 2004; Penedo and Dahn, 2005; Diener and Ryan, 2009). Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic created an environment in which unhealthy coping mechanisms, such as problematic alcohol use, were likely to increase. Previous reports have linked exposure to catastrophic societal events and natural disasters to increased alcohol use (Morita et al., 2015; Locke et al., 2020). Indeed, many reports have now demonstrated that alcohol use has increased significantly since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (Ahmed et al., 2020; Clay et al., 2020; Dumas et al., 2020; Grigoletto et al., 2020; Kim et al., 2020; Lechner et al., 2020; Neill et al., 2020; Pollard et al., 2020; Stanton et al., 2020; Tran et al., 2020; Vanderbruggen et al., 2020; Wardell et al., 2020). Several recent studies have reported changes in alcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic. Generally, studies report an increase in alcohol use documented via cross-sectional design (Ahmed et al., 2020; Clay et al., 2020; Dumas et al., 2020; Kim et al., 2020; Lechner et al., 2020; Neill et al., 2020; Stanton et al., 2020; Tran et al., 2020; Vanderbruggen et al., 2020; Wardell et al., 2020). Three longitudinal studies have reported on alcohol use prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. A study examining changes in wastewater reported ‘decreased’ alcohol consumption after selfisolation measures were enforced in the district (Bade et al., 2020), whereas two other longitudinal studies reported results in-line with ‘increases’ observed in cross-section. A national cohort study in the USA reported increases in alcohol consumption from assessments completed in April 2019 to April 2020 (Pollard et al., 2020), and a second study reported increased emergency room visits due to alcohol intoxication documented via chart review prior to and during the pandemic (Grigoletto et al., 2020). In addition to examining changes in alcohol use several studies have examined factors associated with those changes including alcohol-related coping motives (Wardell et al., 2020), inhibitory control (Clay et al., 2020), symptoms of anxiety or depression (Dumas et al., 2020; Lechner et al., 2020; Neill et al., 2020; Rodriguez et al., 2020; Stanton et al., 2020; Tran et al., 2020; Wardell et al., 2020), social connectedness (Lechner et al., 2020; Wardell et al., 2020) and loss of job or income (Neill et al., 2020; Vanderbruggen et al., 2020; Wardell et al., 2020), all documented in cross-sectional analysis. While at least two studies demonstrate longitudinally assessed increases in alcohol use following the COVID19 pandemic, these studies did not examine associations between increased drinking and psychological or behavioral factors (Grigoletto et al., 2020; Pollard et al., 2020). The current manuscript aimed to expand upon previous studies by examining alcohol use at multiple timepoints in order to examine longitudinal changes in drinking among a sample of college students during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the current study aimed to examine changes in high-risk drinking patterns that have been linked to increased likelihood of developing an Alcohol Use Disorder (Greenfield et al., 2014; Olsson et al., 2016; Tavolacci et al., 2019). Previous research has shown that considering both maximum drinks per drinking day and total number of drinks per week are important determinants of risk for developing alcoholrelated problems (Greenfield et al., 2014), leading institutions such as Alcohol and Alcoholism, 2021 3 Alcohol and Alcoholism, 2021 Measures Alcohol use (completed in waves 1–3) In order to provide insight to changes in drinking patterns that could affect risk level for developing an Alcohol Use Disorder or increase risk of chronic disease, the NIAAA definition for exceeding low-risk drinking was utilized as the primary outcome variable. As defined by NIAAA, for women, low-risk drinking is no more than three standard drinks (SDs) on any single day and no more than seven SDs per week. For men, it is defined as no more than four SDs on any single day and no more than 14 SDs per week (NIAAA, 2017). Two variables were computed for each gender assigned at birth, based on these limits— one for exceeding daily limits and one for exceeding weekly limits. Those variables were collapsed into one binary variable indicating that the participant had exceeded either daily or weekly drinking limits in the given assessment week (0 = not exceeded, 1 = exceeded). Patterns of drinking used to form the primary outcome variable were garnered via the TLFB (Sobell et al., 1996), a well-validated calendar assisted measure. Unfortunately, this classification method does not account for gender identification outside of cisgender. A notation on the need to improve classification methods for risky drinking based on drinking patterns for individuals identifying as non-cisgender or in transition is included in the discussion. Financial distress due to COVID-19 (completed at wave 3) Three items assessed financial distress specifically related to the COVID19 pandemic (Conway et al., 2020). Each item (e.g. ‘The coronavirus (COVID-19) has impacted me negatively from a financial point of view’ and ‘I have lost job-related income due to the coronavirus’) was rated on a 7-point Likert-type scale ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). The total score was calculated by summing three items and showed good reliability in this sample (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.818). Psychological distress due to COVID-19 (completed at wave 3) Three items assessed psychological distress specifically related to the COVID-19 pandemic (Conway et al., 2020). Each item (e.g. ‘I have become depressed because of the coronavirus (COVID-19)’ and ‘The coronavirus outbreak has impacted my psychological health negatively’) was rated on a 7-point Likert-type scale ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). The total score was calculated by summing the three items and showed good reliability in this sample (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.850). Coronavirus-related fears (completed at wave 3) Three items assessed general and health related fears associated with the COVID19 pandemic (Conway et al., 2020). Each item (e.g. ‘I am stressed around other people because I worry I’ll catch the coronavirus (COVID-19)’ and ‘I am afraid of the coronavirus’) was rated on a 7-point Likert-type scale ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). The total score was calculated by summing the three items and showed good reliability in this sample (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.881). Impact of racial tensions and distress (completed at wave 3) Two items were created by the authors to assess the impact of current racial tensions amid the pandemic. The assessment period followed soon after the death of George Floyd on 25 May, 2020, which dominated media coverage and prompted protests around the USA. Each item specifically references the death of George Floyd (i.e. ‘Current racial tensions related to the death of George Floyd have impacted me negatively’ and ‘Current racial tensions related to the death of George Floyd have caused a lot of anxiety/stress for me’) and was rated on a 7-point Likert-type scale ranging from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree). The total score was calculated by summing the two items and showed good reliability in this sample (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.869). Analytic strategy Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to examine alcohol consumption reported across the four 7-day assessment periods, with a binomial distribution, logit link and exchangeable working correlation matrix specified. First, the main effect of time (0, 1, 2, 3) on drinking outcome (0 = did not exceed limit, 1 = exceeded limit) was modeled. Next, the main effects of the four independent variables were added to the model. The independent variables were the scales detailed in the measurement section: (a) financial distress, (b) psychological distress, (c) coronavirus-related fears and (d) impact of racial tension. Finally, a model (Table 2) containing the main effects of each independent variable as well as the four two-way interactions between each variable and time was added in order to examine associations between changes in drinking patterns and each variable. Two exploratory models examined the effect of gender on the relationship between psychological and financial distress and risky drinking patterns, with hypotheses formed based on previously published research (Rodriguez et al., 2020). These models included all variables in the final model as well as a three-way interaction between gender, psychological or financial distress (each modeled separately) and time. Covariates were selected a priori based on the extant alcohol use literature and included race: [White (0), Asian (1), Black (2), multiracial (3) or other (4)]; age, gender: [male (0) female (1)]; living environment: [with parent (0), my home/apartment (1), other (2)]. Due to very small cell sizes for two racial groups (American Indian or Alaskan Native and Native Hawaiian), these groups could not be included in inferential analyses. For reporting within the correlation table, race and living environment were recoded into binary variables (race: white = 0, nonwhite = 1; living situation: with parents = 0, my home/apt/other = 1). Risky drinking across weeks was split into two variables (risky drinking in the 7-day observation period prior to the pandemic-related school closure: 0 = did not exceed low-risk limit, 1 = exceeded limits) and a second variable combining the three 7-day observation periods following the closure of the campus (0 = did not exceed at any point during the 3 weeks, 1 = exceeded limits in at least 1 week) for the correlation table. Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/alcalc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/alcalc/agab… by Kent State University user on 02 April 2021 Only students completing all three surveys (n = 1001) are included in the current analysis. In order to assess sensitivity to missing data, a series of analyses were conducted for participants completing only wave 1, waves 1 and 2 and waves 1 and 3. Results from these sensitivity analyses were in the same direction and significance level as the main results reported (see Supplementary Tables for results of sensitivity analysis). The final sample was 83.1% females, 84.1% non-Hispanic whites, and the mean age was 25.66 (SD = 8.66) years. Demographics reported by the University registrar at the time of study initiation were 63.4% females, 75.6% non-Hispanic whites; thus, the current sample is skewed in assessing a greater proportion of females and non-white Caucasians. Participants were told their responses would be confidential and that the purpose of the survey was to present a broad picture of student wellness. As an incentive, participants were given the opportunity to enter a drawing to win gift cards ranging from $20 to $100 at each of the three assessment points. 4 Alcohol and Alcoholism, 2021 Table 1. Descriptives and zero-order correlations Correlations full sample (n = 1001) M/N SD/(%) 1 2 (1) Age (2) Sex (female) 25.8 832 8.9 83.2% −0.073 (3) Race binary (nonwhite) (4) Living environment (home/apt) (5) COVID financial (6) COVID psychological distress 158 495 12.03 12.64 15.8% 49.5% 5.83 5.03 0.036 .451∗∗ −0.148∗∗ −0.139∗∗ (7) COVID fear (8) COVID racial tension (9) Risky drinking prior to closure 9.89 8.41 85 5.00 3.72 8.5% 0.041 −0.064∗ −0.025 −0.063 0.090∗∗ 0.171∗∗ 0.129∗∗ 0.162∗∗ −0.042 −0.016 (10) Risky drinking after closure 233 23.3% −0.012 0.045 3 4 0.073∗ 0.025 −0.034 −0.077∗ −0.092∗∗ 0.036 0.096∗∗ −0.063∗ −0.090∗∗ 0.029 0.005 0.014 0.059 5 0.332∗∗ 0.133∗∗ 0.163∗∗ −0.020 0.074∗ 6 7 8 0.417∗∗ 0.394∗∗ 0.078∗ 0.076∗ 0.426∗∗ −0.037 0.053 −0.015 0.050 9 0.392∗∗ ∗ Denotes P < 0.05, ∗∗ Denotes P < 0.01. RESULTS DISCUSSION Bivariate correlations, means and standard deviations for all variables included in analyses are listed in Table 1; descriptive reporting for groups (e.g. race, living situation) contained within collapsed variables in Table 1 follows. In the week prior to campus closure, 8.5% (n = 85) participants reported drinking patterns that exceeded low risk drinking guidelines. That percentage was higher (12.6%, n = 126) in the week following campus closure and remained higher at each follow-up assessment (11.9%, n = 119; and 12.1%, n = 121), respectively. The majority of the sample identified as white (84.2%) and also included individuals identifying as Asian (3.0%), Black or African American (3.5%), multiracial (2.9%), Native Hawaiian (0.1%) or a racial group not listed (6.3%). A slight majority of the sample reported living at their home or apartment (49.5%), followed by those who were living with their parent(s) or guardian (48.8%) or other living environment (1.6%) following campus closure. The main effect of time on risky drinking was significant; risky drinking increased following the baseline assessment period [b = 0.452, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.218, 0.685, P < 0.001] and remained at an increased level at each of the follow-up assessments (b = 0.395, 95% CI = 0.144, 0.645, P = 0.002; b = 0.404, 95% CI = 0.165, 0.643, P = 0.001) (Supplemental Table 1). Changes in risky drinking after the baseline assessment (between the second, third and fourth 7-day observation periods) were nonsignificant. Significant main effects (examined prior to the final model that included interaction terms) indicated that higher psychological distress associated with COVID-19, and higher impact of racial tensions since the pandemic were associated with increased likelihood of risky drinking overall (b = 0.039, 95% CI = 0.003, 0.074, P = 0.031) and (b = 0.049, 95% CI = 0.004, 0.094, P = 0.032), respectively (Supplemental Table 1). Conversely, endorsement of fears related to the COVID-19 virus was associated with less risky drinking overall (b = −0.047, 95% CI = −0.079, −0.016, P = 0.003). The final model, which included all four two-way interactions between independent variables and time, demonstrated that only financial distress since the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increased risky drinking over time (b = 0.020, 95% CI = 0.006, 0.035, P = 0.006) (Table 2). Exploratory analyses examining differences in gender in terms of the association between financial distress, psychological distress and changes in risky drinking did not reveal significant effects (b = −0.010, 95% CI = −0.042, 0.022, P = 0.556) and (b = −0.013, 95% CI = −0.022, 0.047, P = 0.472), respectively. In this longitudinal study of alcohol consumption assessed at four time points from 4 March 2020 through 2 June 2020, we observed a significant increase in risky drinking patterns. Risky drinking increased in the week following campus closure and remained significantly elevated in the two follow-up assessment periods. Additionally, we observed several factors to be associated with risky drinking overall, including psychological distress, fears related to COVID19 and impact of racial tensions. However, only loss of income or employment-related distress due to the pandemic was associated with an increase in risky drinking across the four reporting periods. The current results align with some but not all findings reported in previous studies examining factors related to alcohol use during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, several studies reported associations between alcohol use during the pandemic and depressive symptoms or broader indices of psychological distress (Dumas et al., 2020; Lechner et al., 2020; Neill et al., 2020; Rodriguez et al., 2020; Stanton et al., 2020; Tran et al., 2020; Wardell et al., 2020). The current study observed an association between psychological distress due to the pandemic and risky drinking overall but did not find an association between changes in risky drinking over time related with this factor. Discrepancies may be due to differences in the assessment of psychological distress, measurement of alcohol use and study design. Specifically, the current study asked questions directly related to changes in depressive symptoms or psychological wellbeing related to the pandemic, whereas most previous studies have focused on assessing psychological symptoms in general. Additionally, this is the first study, to our knowledge, to examine factors associated with changes in patterns of risky drinking at multiple timepoints during the COVID-19 pandemic, other indices of alcohol use or cross-sectional assessment may produce different results. The general finding of higher levels of risky drinking overall being associated with psychological distress is in line with past literature examining the relationships between these variables (e.g. Bott et al., 2005). Current findings regarding the association between financial or employmentrelated distress and increased alcohol use are in line with reporting in several previous studies (Neill et al., 2020; Vanderbruggen et al., 2020; Wardell et al., 2020). The current findings expand the literature by demonstrating this association within a longitudinal cohort design and specifically in relation to changes in risky drinking patterns rather than other indices of alcohol use. Additionally, this is the first study, to our knowledge, to document an association between the impact of racial tensions and increased risky drinking overall during Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/alcalc/advance-article/doi/10.1093/alcalc/agab… by Kent State University user on 02 April 2021 Scale 5 Alcohol and Alcoholism, 2021 Table 2. GEEs: factors associated with risky drinking across four timepoints Parameter Std. error Lower (95%Wald CI) Upper (95% Wald CI) P −2.52 −0.008 −0.028 0.018 0.514 0.009 0.130 0.211 −3.53 −0.027 −0.283 −0.395 −1.51 0.011 0.226 0.432 0.000 0.393 0.827 0.931 −0.820 −1.83 −0.110 −0.521 0.540 0.652 0.418 0.385 −1.87 −3.11 −0.930 −1.27 0.230 −0.551 0.709 0.235 0.129 0.005 0.791 0.177 0.452 −0.071 −0.045 0.084 −0.064 0.038 0.020 −0.016 0.006 0.005 0.168 0.527 0.023 0.029 0.025 0.036 0.007 0.008 0.008 0.011 0.123 −1.11 −0.090 0.026 −0.114 −0.033 0.006 −0.034 −0.010 −0.017 0.782 0.963 0.001 0.143 −0.015 0.108 0.035 0.001 0.022 0.027 0.007 0.893 0.055 0.005 0.011 0.298 0.006 0.064 0.472 0.651 the COVID-19 pandemic. While we did not observe an association between racial tension and changes in risky drinking patterns over time, this finding should be explored in future studies, particularly given limitations of the current sample. Specifically, the ability to examine associations between racial tension and changes in risky drinking among black participants was significantly limited due to small sample size for the group (3.5%, n = 35). In general, black participants were less likely to demonstrate risky drinking patterns as compared with white participants (b = −1.88, P = 0.006) and reported higher impact of racial tension (mean difference = 3.06, P < 0.001) as compared with white participants. This general finding that black participants drank less than their white counterparts aligns with previous research conducted prior to the 2020 pandemic (Zapolski et al., 2014). Future studies designed to examine coping mechanisms associated with racial tension and adequately powered to examine racial group differences will provide highly valuable contributions to the literature. This study has limitations that are important to consider when interpreting results. The degree that the present findings may generalize to other populations and or events is limited by several factors. Data for the current study were collected from university students, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Different populations as well as events that are different from the COVID-19 pandemic may produce different results. It is important to note that while the analysis included changes in patterns of high-risk drinking previously associated with increased risk for Alcohol Use Disorder, the current results are not capable of providing information on changes in actual risk. Additionally, although the measure of psychological distress used in the current analysis specified distress related to the pandemic, it is also likely tapping into general psychological distress. Disentangling these sources of distress would require assessment of psychological functioning prior to the campus closure, which we do not have for this sample. Moreover, all measurements associated with changes in alcohol use were assessed at the third wave only. Research examining changes in both alcohol use and changes in these measurements over time would significantly improve the study design. The response rate (12.9%) and high percentage of female Caucasian students limits the generalizability of these results despite covariation for gender and race. It is also important to consider the potential influence of seasonal variation and or secular trends in drinking behavior that are not accounted for within the current study. Future research is needed to continue to track and monitor alcohol use as the pandemic progresses as well as examine the utility of remote technologies to deliver empirically supported strategies for alcohol use reduction (e.g. Riper et al., 2011). As noted, studies that include samples capable of providing adequate power to detect differences between majority and minority groups on several factors examined in the current study will provide crucial contributions to the literature in this area. This study was also limited in that it relied on assessing drinking patterns as assessed by gender assigned at birth. This method only allows for classification of drinking risk for cisgender individuals. Additionally, the main outcome variable was assessed via retrospective timeline follow-back self-report; while this method has been well validated, it is subject to limitations inherent to self-report measures. In conclusion, the current study presents novel information on changes in risky drinking patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Examining changes in drinking associated with increased risk of developing an Alcohol Use Disorder provides valuable information for universities and other public health institutions to use in preparation for addressing long-term consequences of the pandemic. Whereas the current results do not include a clinical assessment of Alcohol Use Disorder, they may provide a more sensitive assessment of changes in drinking that could lead to functional impairments if they are not adequately addressed. Additionally, these findings suggest that individuals experiencing financial distress may represent a particularly high-risk group. Given the current unprecedented levels of unemployment in the USA caused by the pandemic (Allegretto and Liedtke, 2020; Organization IL, 2020), it will be imperative to identify interventions that consider the cross-section of job loss, financial stress and problematic alcohol use. 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Clinical Infectious Diseases ViewpointS Muge Cevik,1 Julia L. Marcus,2 Caroline Buckee,3 and Tara C. Smith4 1 Division of Infection and Global Health Research, School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, United Kingdom, 2Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Medical School and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute, Boston, Massachusetts, USA, 3Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA, and 4 College of Public Health, Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, USA It is generally agreed that striking a balance between resuming economic and social activities and keeping the effective reproductive number (R0) below 1 using nonpharmaceutical interventions is an important goal until and even after effective vaccines become available. Therefore, the need remains to understand how the virus is transmitted in order to identify high-risk environments and activities that disproportionately contribute to its spread so that effective preventative measures could be put in place. Contact tracing and household studies, in particular, provide robust evidence about the parameters of transmission. In this Viewpoint, we discuss the available evidence from large-scale, well-conducted contact-tracing studies from across the world and argue that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission dynamics should inform policy decisions about mitigation strategies for targeted interventions according to the needs of the society by directing attention to the settings, activities, and socioeconomic factors associated with the highest risks of transmission. Keywords.  COVID-19; coronavirus; SARS-CoV-2; novel coronavirus; transmission. Since coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first described in December 2019, we have witnessed widespread implementation of local and national restrictions in many areas of the world and social, health, and economic devastation due to direct and indirect impact of the pandemic. It is generally agreed that striking a balance between resuming economic and social activities and keeping the effective reproductive number (R0) below 1 using nonpharmaceutical interventions is an important goal until and even after effective vaccines become available. Achieving this balance requires an understanding of how the virus is spread. There is also a need to identify the structural factors that contribute to transmission, a particular concern considering the already stark health disparities driven by socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities in our societies. An understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission dynamics can inform policy decisions by directing attention to the settings and activities that confer the highest risk of transmission and understanding of the intersection between poverty, household crowding, and COVID-19. This understanding will allow policymakers and public health practitioners to shape the best strategy and preventative measures and inform the public about   Received 11 June 2020; editorial decision 15 September 2020; published online 23 September 2020. Correspondence: M.  Cevik, Division of Infection and Global Health Research, School of Medicine, University of St Andrews, Fife, KY16 9TF UK (mc349@st-andrews.ac.uk). Clinical Infectious Diseases®  2020;XX(XX):1–6 © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com. DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1442 transmission risk. Epidemiological investigations including contact-tracing studies and outbreak investigations conducted so far across the world already provide crucial information about the probability of infection in close contacts and various environments. We argue that health authorities should use the large-scale, well-conducted contact-tracing studies and observations from across the world to date in their risk assessment and mitigation strategies. This article summarizes current knowledge about transmission dynamics and discusses recommendations that could prevent infections by focusing on factors associated with risk of transmission. FACTORS INFLUENCING TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS Emerging data suggest that risk of transmission depends on several factors, including contact pattern, host-related infectivity/susceptibility pattern, environment, and socioeconomic factors (Figure  1). We will discuss the emerging evidence relating to each of these aspects of transmission. Contact Pattern Contact-tracing studies provide early evidence that sustained close contact drives the majority of infections and clusters. For instance, living with the case, family/friend gatherings, dining, or traveling on public transport were found to have a higher risk for transmission than market shopping or brief (<10 minutes) community encounters [1–3]. While people are more likely to recall and disclose close and household contacts, and it is easier for tracers to identify the source, household studies provide important information about the contact patterns and activities VIEWPOINTS • cid 2020:XX (XX XXXX) • 1 Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1442/5… by Kent State University user on 19 November 2020 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2) Transmission Dynamics Should Inform Policy Indoor/Outdoor Venlaon Long term care facilies Environment Host factors Contact paern Age Infecousness Severity of illness Host defence factors Socio-economic factors Poverty Job insecurity Prolonged working hours Household crowding Figure 1.    Factors influencing transmission dynamics. Transmission depends on several factors, including contact pattern (duration of contact, gathering, proximity, activity), environment (outdoor, indoor, ventilation), host-related infectivity/susceptibility pattern (ie, viral load in relation to disease course, severity of illness, age), and socioeconomic factors (ie, crowded housing, job insecurity, poverty). Virus infectivity and differences between other viruses and host immune factors are not discussed in this review. (This figure was created by the authors based on available literature about SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics.) Abbreviation: SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. associated with higher attack rates. Close contacts with the highest risk of transmission are typically friends, household members, and extended family, with a secondary attack rate that ranges from 4% to 35% [1, 4–8]. In the same household, higher attack rates are observed among spouses compared with the rest of the household [8]. A  systematic review including 5 studies based on relationship demonstrated that household SAR (secondary attack rate) to spouses (43.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 27.1–59.6%) was significantly higher than to other relationships (18.3%; 95% CI, 10.4–26.2%) [8]. Similar results were observed in the USS Theodora Roosevelt outbreak in which those sharing the same sleeping space had a higher risk of being infected [9]. In addition, the attack rate has shown to be higher when the index case is isolated in the same room with the rest of the household or when the household members have daily close contact with the index case [10, 11]. Transmission is significantly reduced when the index case is isolated away from the family, or preventative measures such as social distancing, hand hygiene, disinfection, and use of face masks at home are applied [10, 11]. In a study of an outbreak in the largest meat-processing plant in Germany, while the universal point of potential contact among all cases was the workplace, positive rates were statistically significant for a single shared apartment, shared 2 • cid 2020:XX (XX XXXX) • VIEWPOINTS bedroom, and associated carpool [12]. These findings suggest that sleeping in the same room or sharing the same sleeping space and increased contact frequency constitute a high risk of transmission. Large clusters have been observed in family, friend, and workcolleague gatherings including weddings and birthday parties [13, 14]. Other examples include gatherings in pubs, church services, and close business meetings [14–17]. These findings suggest that group activities pose a higher risk of transmission. In non–household contact-tracing studies, dining together or engaging in group activities such as board games have been found to be a high risk for transmission as well [18]. In the same household, frequent daily contact with the index case and dining in close proximity have been associated with increased attack rates [10, 11]. Large, long-term-care facilities such as nursing homes and homeless shelters have seen increased rates of infection, in part because of patterns of contact among staff and residents. In nursing home outbreak investigations from the Netherlands, Boston, and London, multiple viral genomes were identified, suggesting multiple introductions to the facility leading to infections among residents [19–21]. In an investigation of 17 nursing homes that implemented voluntary staff confinement with residents, including 794 staff members and 1250 residents Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1442/5… by Kent State University user on 19 November 2020 Proximity to index case Time of contact Duraon of exposure Contact frequency Acvity Host Factors Contact tracing and outbreak investigations suggest that many people with SARS-CoV-2 either do not contribute to onward transmission or have minimal potential to do so [6, 17], and a large number of secondary cases are often caused by a small number of infected patients. While this may also be due to contact pattern and environmental factors, host factors strongly influence this variation; individual variation in infectiousness is an expected feature of superspreading events. Timing of the contact with an index case is key in transmission dynamics as it relates to the infectiousness of the index case. In a systematic review of studies published up to 6 June 2020, we found that viral load peaks early in the disease course, with the highest viral loads observed from symptom onset to day 5, indicating a high level of infectiousness during this period [23] (Figure 2). Supporting these findings, transmission events are estimated to occur in a short window, likely a few days prior to and following symptom onset [4, 23]. For example, a contacttracing study that followed up 2761 contacts of 100 confirmed COVID-19 cases demonstrated that infection risk was higher if the exposure occurred within the first 5 days after symptom onset, with no secondary cases documented after this point [4]. This understanding indicates that viral dose plays an important role in transmission dynamics. In contrast, higher viral loads in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-1) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERSCoV) were identified in the second week after symptom onset, suggesting that patients had viral load peak after hospitalization [23]. Therefore, early viral load peak also explains efficient community SARS-CoV-2 spread in contrast to SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV, during which community spread was put under control; however, nosocomial spread was an important feature of the outbreaks. In contrast, during COVID-19, only a small number of hospital-based outbreaks have been reported so far, which may be due to a downtrend in viral load levels later in the disease course [23, 24]. Symptoms and severity of illness appear to influence transmission dynamics as well. People with symptoms appear to have a higher secondary attack rate compared with presymptomatic and asymptomatic index cases (those who develop no symptoms Figure 2.    SARS-CoV-2 viral load dynamics and period of infectiousness. Incubation period (time from exposure to symptom onset) of 6 days (2–21 days), peak viral load levels documented from day 0 (symptom onset) to day 5, infectious period starts before symptom onset up to 10 days (this may be extended in patients with severe illness), and RNA shedding continues for a prolonged period of time but culturable virus has been identified up to day 9 of illness. (This figure was created by the authors on Biorender, https://biorender.com based on available literature about SARS-CoV-2 viral load dynamics.) Abbreviations: max, maximum; PCR, polymerase chain reaction; SARS-CoV-2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. VIEWPOINTS • cid 2020:XX (XX XXXX) • 3 Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1442/5… by Kent State University user on 19 November 2020 in France, staff confining themselves to a single facility for a weeklong period was associated with decreased outbreaks in these facilities [22]. These findings emphasize that contact patterns, including the duration of contact, contact frequency, proximity to index case, and types of activities, influence transmission risk, highlighting the need for tailored prevention strategies for different settings. Environment Transmission risk is not one-dimensional and contact patterns also depend on the setting of the encounter. Findings from contact-tracing studies in Japan suggest an 18.7-fold higher risk of transmission indoors compared with outdoor environments [28]. These findings are in keeping with our understanding about transmission patterns of respiratory viral infections. While outdoor settings usually have lower risk, prolonged contact in an enclosed setting can lead to increased risk of transmission. Especially when combined with environmental factors such as poor ventilation and crowding this may lead to further increases in attack rates. Epidemiological studies so far support this knowledge. SARS-CoV-2 is much more efficiently spread in enclosed and crowded environments. The largest outbreaks from across the world are reported in long-term-care facilities such as nursing homes, homeless shelters, prisons, and also workplaces including meat-packing plants and factories, where many people spend several hours working together, dining and sharing communal spaces [12, 14]. A  study in 6 London care homes experiencing SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks identified a high proportion of residents (39.8%) and staff (20.9%) who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 [20]. Among 408 individuals residing at a large homeless shelter in Boston, 36% of those tested were found to be positive [16]. Although it is much harder to obtain data from incarcerated populations, the largest clusters of cases observed in the United States have all been associated with 4 • cid 2020:XX (XX XXXX) • VIEWPOINTS prisons or jails, suggesting a high attack rate in these institutional settings [29]. Social distancing is the opposite of incarceration, and overcrowding, poor sanitation and ventilation, and inadequate healthcare contribute to the disproportionate rates of infections seen in prisons and jails, which demonstrates the larger pattern of the health disparities in our societies. Socioeconomic Factors and Racial/Ethnic Disparities Global figures suggest that there is a strong association between socioeconomic deprivation, race/ethnicity, and a higher risk of infection and death from COVID-19 [30, 31]. People facing the greatest socioeconomic deprivation experience a higher risk of household and occupational exposure to SARS-CoV-2, and existing poor health leads to more severe outcomes if infected [32]. People with lower-paid and public-facing occupations are often classified as essential workers who must work outside the home and may travel to work on public transport. Indeed, in New York City, higher cumulative infection rates were observed in neighborhoods that continued to engage in mobility behaviors consistent with commuting for work [33]. These occupations often involve greater social mixing and greater exposure risk due to prolonged working hours, resulting in reduced ability to practice social distancing among low-income families [34]. In addition, households in socioeconomically deprived areas are more likely to be overcrowded, increasing the risk of transmission within the household. Black, Hispanic, and other marginalized, racial/ethnic, and migrant groups have also been shown to be at greater risk of infection, severe disease, and death from COVID-19 [31, 35–37]. These increased risks are also likely due to socioeconomic conditions that increase the risk of transmission, inequitable access to adequate healthcare, and higher rates of comorbidities due to adverse living and working conditions and structural racism. It is not surprising that the largest outbreaks are observed in meat-packing plants, and most commonly exposed occupations include nurses, taxi and bus drivers, and factory workers [31]. These disparities also shape the strong geographic heterogeneities observed in the burden of cases and deaths—for example, across the United States and the United Kingdom [31, 38]. These findings support the hypothesis that the COVID-19 pandemic is strongly shaped by structural inequities that drive household and occupational risks, emphasizing the need to tailor effective control and recovery measures for these disadvantaged communities proportionate to their greater needs and vulnerabilities. Large Clusters and Superspreading Events Clusters have become a prominent characteristic of SARSCoV-2, which distinguishes it from seasonal influenza [14, 17]. This emphasises that large clusters and superspreading events may be the driver of the majority of infections, just as they were for SARS-CoV-1 in 2002–2003 [39, 40]. For instance, during the 2003 SARS-CoV-1 outbreak, over 70% of infections were linked Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1442/5… by Kent State University user on 19 November 2020 throughout the illness) [18]. While asymptomatic patients can transmit the virus to others, the findings from 9 studies in a systematic review, including studies published up to 3 July 2020, found secondary attack rates of 0% to 2.8%, compared with secondary attack rates of 0.7% to 16.2% in symptomatic cases in the same studies, suggesting asymptomatic index cases transmit to fewer secondary cases [18]. Another systematic review that included studies published up to 10 June 2020 similarly found a reduced risk of transmission for asymptomatic versus symptomatic cases (.35; 95% CI, .10–1.27) and presymptomatic versus symptomatic cases (.63; 95% CI, .18–2.26) [25]. There are also differences in attack rates based on symptom severity. In the Zhang et al [26] study the secondary attack rate was 3.5% for those with mild symptoms, 5.7% for those with moderate symptoms, and 4.5% for those with severe symptoms (based on the China Centers for Disease Control guidelines). In a contacttracing study, contacts of severe cases were more likely to develop severe infections themselves [4]. Virus transmission is also affected by a number of other host factors, including host defense mechanisms and age. Current synthesis of the literature demonstrates significantly lower susceptibility to infection for children aged under 10  years compared with adults given the same exposure, and elevated susceptibility to infection in adults aged over 60 years compared with younger or middle-aged adults [27]. RECOMMENDATIONS Increased risk of transmission in deprived areas and among people in low-paid jobs suggests that poverty and household crowding need to be addressed with interventions that go beyond guidance on social distancing, hand hygiene, and mask use. Previous research suggests that, although social distancing during the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic was effective in reducing infections, this effect was most pronounced in households with greater socioeconomic advantage. Similar findings are emerging for COVID-19, with the ability to practice social distancing strongly differentiated by county and household income [34]. The disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on households living in poverty and the racial and ethnic disparities observed in many countries emphasize the need to urgently address these inequities that directly impact health outcomes. This includes social and income protection and support to ensure low-paid, nonsalaried, and zero-hours contract workers can afford to follow isolation and quarantine recommendations; provision of protective equipment for workplaces and community settings; appropriate return-to-work guidelines; and testing and opportunities for isolation outside of the home to protect those still at work. Second, knowing which contacts and settings confer the highest risk for transmission can help direct contact-tracing and testing efforts to increase the efficiency of mitigation strategies. Early viral load peak in the disease course indicates that preventing onward transmission requires immediate selfisolation with symptom onset, prompt testing, and results with a 24- to 48-hour turnaround time, and robust contact tracing. In many countries, people with symptoms access testing late in the disease course, by which time they may have had multiple contacts while in the most infectious period. While selfisolation with symptoms is crucial, 75% of those with symptoms and their contacts in the United Kingdom reported not fully self-isolating [44]. While presymptomatic transmission likely contributes to a fraction of onward transmission, over half of transmission is caused by those with symptoms, especially in the first few days after symptom onset. These findings suggest that messages should prioritize isolation practice, and policies should include supported isolation and quarantine. Third, policymakers and health experts can help the public differentiate between lower-risk and higher-risk activities and environments and public health messages could convey a spectrum of risk to the public to support engagement in alternatives for safer interaction, such as in outdoor settings. Without clear public health communication about risk, individuals may fixate on unlikely sources of transmission—such as outdoor activities—while undervaluing higher-risk settings, such as family and friend gatherings and indoor settings. Enhancing community awareness about risk can also encourage symptomatic persons and contacts of ill persons to isolate or self-quarantine to prevent ongoing transmission. Finally, because crowded indoor spaces and gatherings likely will continue to be the driver of transmission, public health strategies will be needed to mitigate transmission in these settings (eg, nursing homes, prisons and jails, shelters, and meatpacking plants), such as personal protective equipment and routine testing to identify infected individuals early in the disease course. As part of the pandemic response we may need to consider fundamentally redesigning these settings, including improved ventilation, just as improved sanitation was a response to cholera. Such strategies should be adopted in settings where large outbreaks and superspreading events have been identified by contact-tracing studies. While modeling studies and computer simulations could contribute to our understanding of transmission dynamics and aerodynamics of droplets, contact-tracing studies provide real-life transmission dynamics and individual and structural factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission, which are essential to shape our public health plans, mitigate superspreading events, VIEWPOINTS • cid 2020:XX (XX XXXX) • 5 Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1442/5… by Kent State University user on 19 November 2020 to superspreading events in Hong Kong and Singapore [39]. Hallmarks for superspreading events include a combination of factors, typically a highly infectious individual(s) gathered with other individuals in enclosed and crowded environments [14, 17]. There have been several superspreading events reported so far. For example, an outbreak investigation from China identified that 24 out of 67 passengers were infected during a 50-minute return bus journey, which was linked to an index case who was symptomatic the day before the trip. In contrast, during the event, only 6 people were infected, all of whom were in close contact with the same index case [41]. In Washington State, a mildly symptomatic index case attended a choir practice (the practice was 2.5 hours), and out of 61 persons, 32 confirmed and 20 probable secondary COVID-19 cases occurred with an attack rate of 53.3% to 86.7% [42]. While these superspreading events occur, the frequency of these events and whether they are caused by a single index case are unclear. The modeling suggests that several independent introductions might be needed before a COVID-19 outbreak eventually takes off, meaning often these large outbreaks occur when multiple infected persons are introduced to the environment, as shown in the nursing home investigation [43]. Other large outbreaks are reported in night clubs, karaoke bars, and pubs [14, 17], which may be related to crowding, leading to multiple introductions into the same setting as seen in nursing home investigations. These findings and observations suggest that contact-tracing investigations need to be combined with phylogenetic analysis to understand the settings and activities most likely to yield a superspreading event to inform preventative measures. and control the current pandemic. Further understanding of transmission dynamics is also critical to developing policy recommendations for reopening businesses, primary and secondary schools, and universities. References 1. Chen Yi WA, Bo Y, Keqin D, et al. 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